Latest Issues — Chronological
- The Half-Life of Facts: Burton and Kebler’s 1960 Borrowed Metaphor, Poynard’s Forty-Five-Year Measurement of Clinical Truth, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Dates Every Input to a Thesis
Arbesman’s half-life of facts: the 1960 metaphor, 474 clinical conclusions with a 45-year half-life, 146 reversed practices, the ulcer and hormone-therapy reversals, and three disciplines for dating the inputs to an investment thesis. - Hanlon’s Razor: Bloch’s 1980 Printing of an Older Warning, the Arithmetic of Intent and Error, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Writes the Tripwire Before the Surprise
Hanlon’s razor says to begin with error when error and intent both fit. This essay covers its lineage, the Bayesian arithmetic, Dyck, Morse and Zingales on fraud, the Mars Climate Orbiter and the Madoff case, and Buffett’s tripwires. - Occam’s Razor: Ockham’s Fourteenth-Century Rule of Parsimony, the Bayesian and Predictive Case for It, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Counts the Assumptions in a Thesis
Occam’s razor does not say the simple answer is right; it says complexity must be paid for. This essay covers Ockham’s wording, Akaike and Jefferys-Berger, Bailey et al. on backtest overfitting, Netflix, Kepler, and three disciplines for owners. - The Stockdale Paradox: Collins’s 2001 Name for Faith in the End and Honesty About the Present, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Needs Both Without a Date Attached
Faith in the destination and honesty about the present are two jobs, not a compromise. This essay covers Collins’s Stockdale paradox, Oettingen and Mayer’s 2002 studies of expecting versus picturing success, Shackleton’s Endurance, and three disciplines for owners. - Redundancy: Von Neumann’s 1956 Multiplexing Theorem, the Ariane Backup That Failed 0.05 Seconds Later, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Counts Shared Causes Before Counting Cushions
A second copy protects only to the extent it fails for a different reason. This essay covers von Neumann’s 1956 multiplexing, the beta-factor arithmetic, Schroeder and Gibson’s 100,000-drive study, Ariane 501 and Fukushima, and what a balance sheet’s buffers must not share. - The OODA Loop: Boyd’s 1976 Theory of Orientation, the Korean War Kill Ratio That Would Not Hold, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Wants a Better Picture Before a Faster One
Boyd’s OODA loop is usually sold as a case for speed. His own sketches put orientation at the centre. This essay covers the model, a contested Korean War kill ratio, Barber and Odean’s 11.4% against 17.9%, and what it asks of a long-term investor. - Symbiosis: de Bary’s 1879 Definition, Bronstein’s Conditional Outcomes, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Asks Whether a Partnership Is Feeding the Business or Feeding on It
A partnership can be mutual gain, one-sided gain or one-sided harm, and the sign can change. De Bary’s 1879 term, Bronstein’s 1994 conditionality and a 2011 root experiment, read against Intel, Vlasic and Costco’s filing. - Sequence-of-Returns Risk: Bengen’s 1994 Withdrawal Study, Yale’s Fourteen Years of Falling Purchasing Power, and What the Long-Term Equity Investor Does About the First Decade
Why the order of returns matters when money is drawn out: Bengen’s 1994 withdrawal study, a reconstruction from Shiller’s data in which reversing the same thirty returns moves the sustainable rate from 4.0% to 9.9%, and Yale and Harvard. - Ecological Succession: Clements’s 1916 Sequence, Connell and Slatyer’s Three Mechanisms, and What a Cleared Market Teaches the Long-Term Equity Investor
Cleared ground refills in an order. Clements’s 1916 theory of succession, the Connell and Slatyer test of how early occupants treat later arrivals, Krakatau, and the survival base rates every new business starts from. - Cynefin: Snowden and Boone’s Domain Map, and Why Naming the Domain Comes Before Choosing the Method
Dave Snowden’s Cynefin framework says the right decision method depends on the kind of causality you face. Nokia’s smartphone decline and Apollo 13 show the cost of misclassifying the problem, and Kohavi and Thomke’s experiment data show why.
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